Frayed-Steel
0x6ac8b1e3a5ee59f3e35ec77ff9c1802622e3c41d
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$8.1K
Total PnL
$2.1K
Realised
$840.65
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
10772 shares @ 41.4¢·now 42.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$4.6K
$113.97
- NO
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?
2030 shares @ 9.8¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.7K
$1.5K
- NO
Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch?
1018 shares @ 35.4¢·now 54.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$554.97
$194.57
- NO
Will Perena launch a token by December 31, 2026?
374 shares @ 31.8¢·now 78.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$291.47
$172.76
- NO
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch?
353 shares @ 51.0¢·now 64.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$225.72
$45.85
- NO
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch?
442 shares @ 30.6¢·now 46.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$203.32
$68.08
- NO
Perena FDV above $100M one day after launch?
198 shares @ 69.7¢·now 73.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$144.45
$6.50
- YES
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?
1000 shares @ 21.8¢·now 12.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$125.00
$-93.00
- NO
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?
1170 shares @ 49.4¢·now 10.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$122.85
$-454.80
- NO
Will Perena launch a token by September 30, 2026?
89 shares @ 42.1¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$79.34
$42.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.05Jul 6, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$621.41Jul 5, 18:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 5, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 4, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 3, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 2, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 1, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 30, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 29, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 26, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 25, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 24, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 21, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jun 20, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 19, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jun 18, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
16 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 16
- Avg trade size
- $62.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 20, 14:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 6, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.