0x6b0ebbef2630b9a0da35594bf7ddd1911246e3ea
0x6b0ebbef2630b9a0da35594bf7ddd1911246e3ea
Wallet digest
Activity score
99/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$2.5K
Total PnL
$649.58
Realised
$2.3K
Win rate
53%
165 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
1628 shares @ 9.2¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$105.83
$-44.31
- NO
Will Dan Sullivan vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?
686 shares @ 14.7¢·now 13.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$92.61
$-8.37
- YES
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
4217 shares @ 1.7¢·now 2.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$90.25
$17.75
- YES
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?
504 shares @ 16.2¢·now 14.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$73.03
$-8.46
- YES
Will Zach Bryan have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
192 shares @ 10.5¢·now 34.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$66.49
$46.23
- YES
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
457 shares @ 13.0¢·now 12.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$54.87
$-4.54
- YES
Natural Disaster in 2026?
375 shares @ 8.4¢·now 13.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$50.59
$19.05
- YES
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?
537 shares @ 12.3¢·now 8.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$45.64
$-20.48
- NO
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 46.2¢·now 44.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$44.50
$-1.70
- YES
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?
358 shares @ 4.7¢·now 11.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$42.46
$25.77
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during July Press Conference?$11.04Jul 28, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during July Press Conference?$5.04Jul 28, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during July Press Conference?$5.04Jul 28, 17:47 UTC
- TRADESELLHugh Jackman as Wolverine?$1.00Jul 28, 17:43 UTC
- TRADESELLHugh Jackman as Wolverine?$4.07Jul 28, 17:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$1.00Jul 28, 17:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$14.00Jul 28, 17:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?$0.24Jul 28, 17:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France pass a national budget by December 31?$5.10Jul 28, 17:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$1.08Jul 28, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$0.90Jul 28, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$24.12Jul 28, 17:29 UTC
- TRADESELLAnthropic IPO before 2027?$1.53Jul 28, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027?$6.05Jul 28, 17:24 UTC
- TRADESELLAnthropic IPO before 2027?$2.10Jul 28, 17:21 UTC
- TRADESELLAnthropic IPO before 2027?$18.00Jul 28, 17:21 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$25.31Jul 28, 17:17 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$2.00Jul 28, 17:17 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$2.00Jul 28, 17:17 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$45.00Jul 28, 17:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
53% win rate over 165 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.
165 closed markets, 53% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $6.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 15:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 17:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 165 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.