Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027?
Probability
16¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-3.5pp
24h Vol
$130.51
Liquidity
$15.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+9.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 16¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $15.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5986.4h
- 13:37SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:37PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 16¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 16¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 16¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 16¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 16¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 16¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 16¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 16¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 16¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 16¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 15¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 16¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 16¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 16¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 17¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 18¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 17¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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