High-Episode
0x6c17546c05c378555c52d804aebd00d3f4ec6a7e
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$17.0K
Total PnL
$813.83
Realised
$-149.30
Win rate
67%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
3014 shares @ 69.6¢·now 88.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$2.7K
$568.61
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
2625 shares @ 93.0¢·now 98.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.6K
$139.13
- NO
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
1968 shares @ 74.5¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.5K
$79.16
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
1768 shares @ 79.2¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.5K
$57.77
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
2296 shares @ 47.9¢·now 58.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.3K
$243.25
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
1576 shares @ 63.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.2K
$228.65
- NO
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
1402 shares @ 78.4¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$1.77
- YES
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
1207 shares @ 85.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$1.1K
$41.68
- YES
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
2296 shares @ 36.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.1K
$239.01
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
1065 shares @ 91.7¢·now 95.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.0K
$38.84
Recent activity
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$100.11Aug 11, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$7.84Aug 11, 08:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?$50.13Aug 11, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$99.60Aug 11, 07:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$17.60Aug 11, 06:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$8.51Aug 11, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$41.73Aug 11, 06:46 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$100.37Aug 11, 06:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$11.87Aug 11, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$88.24Aug 10, 22:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1000.00Aug 10, 20:46 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$1.1KAug 10, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?$25.52Aug 10, 20:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?$100.00Aug 10, 20:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$100.00Aug 10, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$29.13Aug 10, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?$75.00Aug 10, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$99.60Aug 10, 19:08 UTC
- REWARD$10.47Aug 10, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$46.80Aug 9, 17:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $122.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 8, 18:48 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 11:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.