0x6c20dcb03f50b33c62462b01b4aa0217e1e5a2be
0x6c20dcb03f50b33c62462b01b4aa0217e1e5a2be
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
19
Open notional
$75.18
Total PnL
$-0.40
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- NO
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $120 Week of July 6 2026?
11 shares @ 74.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$10.23
$2.13
- NO
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 71.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$8.37
$1.38
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
11 shares @ 71.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$6.86
$-1.06
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
15 shares @ 49.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$6.67
$-0.67
- NO
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
12 shares @ 52.0¢·now 52.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$6.36
$0.00
- NO
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
7 shares @ 84.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$6.14
$0.14
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
13 shares @ 39.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$5.48
$0.45
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?
9 shares @ 53.0¢·now 53.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$4.86
$0.00
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
11 shares @ 41.0¢·now 42.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.62
$0.11
- NO
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
9 shares @ 29.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$3.46
$0.85
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$2.10Jul 8, 05:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?$4.97Jul 7, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?$1.42Jul 7, 04:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$2.39Jul 6, 16:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$11.11Jul 6, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $120 Week of July 6 2026?$8.18Jul 6, 04:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$8.69Jul 4, 02:05 UTC
- REDEEMGrok 5 released by June 30, 2026?$0.00Jul 1, 06:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?$0.00Jul 1, 06:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $134 Week of June 22 2026?$0.00Jun 26, 20:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May?$0.00Jun 25, 15:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?$7.10Jun 24, 07:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $134 Week of June 22 2026?$1.46Jun 24, 00:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$0.00Jun 23, 17:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?$5.11Jun 22, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$1.93Jun 21, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May?$1.68Jun 20, 19:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?$11.17Jun 20, 18:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?$0.00Jun 19, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?$1.43Jun 19, 09:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
23 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $3.69
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 29, 17:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 8, 05:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.