0x6d280cc5b8e890ccdfdab99f51b0523d70a5985d
0x6d280cc5b8e890ccdfdab99f51b0523d70a5985d
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$309.62
Total PnL
$22.76
Realised
$-37.08
Win rate
67%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
179 shares @ 74.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$179.03
$46.55
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
40 shares @ 64.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$40.25
$14.49
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
40 shares @ 43.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$39.57
$22.50
- YES
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
25 shares @ 29.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$25.00
$17.75
- NO
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
38 shares @ 51.3¢·now 50.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$18.99
$-0.44
- NO
Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by June 30?
3 shares @ 76.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.63
$0.62
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?
2 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$2.26
$1.13
- NO
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?
1 shares @ 61.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$1.00
$0.39
- NO
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 72.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.89
$0.17
- NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
35 shares @ 58.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-20.48
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$25.75May 28, 04:33 UTC
- TRADESELLIran closes its airspace by June 15?$9.75May 28, 04:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?$1.79May 28, 03:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?$1.95May 28, 03:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?$3.74May 28, 03:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?$7.30May 28, 03:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by June 15?$6.49May 28, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by June 15?$4.42May 28, 01:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by June 15?$1.69May 28, 01:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by June 15?$1.89May 28, 01:33 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?$13.44May 28, 01:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?$10.85May 28, 01:03 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$5.80May 28, 00:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?$11.41May 27, 21:33 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$5.80May 27, 18:24 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$10.02May 27, 18:06 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$1.58May 27, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$17.08May 26, 01:33 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$2.44May 26, 00:39 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$2.44May 26, 00:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $7.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 24, 14:21 UTC
- Last active
- May 28, 04:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.