Productive-Belly
0x6d6e71c854c72b3e73cbe106594ea9206fbffdb4
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
24
Open notional
$943.95
Total PnL
$-81.05
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- NO
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
130 shares @ 76.7¢·now 85.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$111.43
$11.43
- NO
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?
122 shares @ 82.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$104.27
$4.27
- NO
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
114 shares @ 88.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$98.30
$-1.70
- NO
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
117 shares @ 85.5¢·now 78.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$91.89
$-8.11
- NO
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?
63 shares @ 80.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$55.31
$5.31
- NO
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
62 shares @ 81.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$52.78
$2.78
- NO
Will Angus Taylor be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?
31 shares @ 80.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Sep 23, 2028$26.72
$1.72
- NO
Will the Democratic Party win the IN-05 House seat?
31 shares @ 80.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$26.72
$1.72
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
31 shares @ 80.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$26.72
$1.72
- NO
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
31 shares @ 80.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$26.56
$1.56
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 31 and 33 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?$25.00Jul 22, 07:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$19.96Jul 22, 03:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?$25.00Jul 21, 12:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$25.00Jul 21, 11:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$25.00Jul 21, 08:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$30.63Jul 21, 01:12 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$20.31Jul 20, 07:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$25.20Jul 20, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$25.00Jul 20, 01:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$25.19Jul 20, 01:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$25.00Jul 20, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$25.25Jul 19, 03:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$25.25Jul 19, 02:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$25.20Jul 19, 02:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$25.00Jul 19, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?$25.20Jul 18, 19:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the FL-04 House seat?$25.20Jul 18, 19:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?$25.20Jul 18, 19:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?$25.20Jul 18, 19:04 UTC
- REDEEMMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$128.47Jul 16, 06:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $40.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 20:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 07:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.