Violet-Kohlrabi
0x6fb868e4bc34c8be25d8b6dad58f395bdb0d48f6
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
54
Open notional
$409.22
Total PnL
$-536.31
Realised
$329.90
Win rate
15%
26 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 54- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
62 shares @ 42.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$42.33
$16.37
- NO
Natural Disaster in 2026?
50 shares @ 53.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$37.25
$10.75
- YES
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
386 shares @ 9.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$36.65
$1.93
- YES
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
70 shares @ 53.0¢·now 49.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$34.30
$-2.80
- NO
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?
60 shares @ 44.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$33.90
$7.50
- YES
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
70 shares @ 41.0¢·now 46.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$32.20
$3.50
- YES
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2603 shares @ 1.2¢·now 1.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$29.93
$-1.30
- YES
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3020 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$28.69
$-1.51
- YES
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
5207 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$28.64
$-2.60
- YES
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1040 shares @ 3.1¢·now 2.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$26.53
$-5.72
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Aug 21, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 20, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 18, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 15, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 13, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 12, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?$24.67Aug 11, 20:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$35.14Aug 11, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$38.70Aug 11, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?$6.10Aug 11, 04:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?$3.52Aug 11, 00:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?$1.69Aug 11, 00:38 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 11, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?$28.70Aug 10, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 10, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?$26.40Aug 9, 03:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
15% win rate over 26 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
26 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $23.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 30, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 21, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 26 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.