Shadowy-Making
0x7005af2a6beebf71fd02172f0a88fad335790eec
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
92
Open notional
$30.35
Total PnL
$-133.01
Realised
$0.86
Win rate
59%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 92- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
10 shares @ 20.1¢·now 27.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.68
$0.68
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
6 shares @ 34.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.44
$0.44
- YES
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
7 shares @ 70.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.93
$-3.17
- YES
Discord IPO before 2027?
5 shares @ 59.4¢·now 35.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.80
$-1.20
- YES
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
56 shares @ 2.6¢·now 3.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.71
$0.25
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
8 shares @ 24.1¢·now 19.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.61
$-0.39
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
12 shares @ 8.5¢·now 12.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.49
$0.49
- YES
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
23 shares @ 4.3¢·now 5.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.31
$0.31
- YES
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
6 shares @ 36.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.19
$-0.81
- YES
Clavicular sentenced to prison?
8 shares @ 12.0¢·now 13.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.08
$0.08
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$6.49Jul 20, 01:48 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?$0.40Jul 13, 19:27 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.05Jul 12, 13:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
59% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
11 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 11
- Avg trade size
- $2.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 03:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.