Inconsequential-Centre
0x70889280ab106f3e298cb0f6cff634a95dad0086
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
161
Open notional
$209.16
Total PnL
$-370.95
Realised
$50.26
Win rate
94%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 161- YES
Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03?
40 shares @ 65.7¢·now 97.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$39.00
$12.73
- YES
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
100 shares @ 16.0¢·now 27.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.00
$11.00
- YES
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
100 shares @ 11.0¢·now 19.4¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$19.40
$8.40
- NO
Will Eric Chung be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?
22 shares @ 27.0¢·now 82.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$18.04
$12.10
- YES
Will Finland recognize Palestine before 2027?
100 shares @ 16.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.50
$-2.50
- NO
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-35 House seat?
20 shares @ 48.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Nov 4, 2026$10.70
$1.10
- NO
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
250 shares @ 9.0¢·now 4.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.50
$-12.00
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-34 House seat?
14 shares @ 64.0¢·now 74.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2026$10.20
$1.38
- NO
Will Charity Clark win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election?
10 shares @ 63.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$9.98
$3.68
- YES
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
200 shares @ 5.2¢·now 4.8¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$9.50
$-0.90
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Andy Biggs win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election?$6.22Jul 22, 06:33 UTC
- REDEEMForeign intervention in Gaza by June 30?$9.00Jul 3, 01:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Extended launch a token by June 30 2026?$6.00Jul 1, 10:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Germany win on 2026-06-14?$10.00Jun 14, 21:30 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Any Other Score?$18.92Jun 14, 19:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Any Other Score?$8.93Jun 14, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Any Other Score?$6.14Jun 14, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Any Other Score?$0.63Jun 14, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany win on 2026-06-14?$9.45Jun 14, 16:17 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco?$20.00Jun 14, 00:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June?$39.14Jun 13, 15:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.00Jun 13, 11:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco?$17.20Jun 13, 07:09 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay?$19.99Jun 13, 03:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Canada win on 2026-06-12?$20.00Jun 12, 23:00 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?$20.00Jun 12, 21:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay?$15.25Jun 12, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay?$1.54Jun 12, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?$16.00Jun 12, 19:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Canada win on 2026-06-12?$9.80Jun 12, 19:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
94% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $9.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 30, 14:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 06:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.