Shocked-Grandmother
0x72388c4642517b793df24bbae8a7d286cd20e52d
Wallet digest
Activity score
97/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
5
Open notional
$479.81
Total PnL
$111.62
Realised
$5.59
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
281 shares @ 75.0¢·now 99.2¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$278.61
$67.86
- YES
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?
190 shares @ 81.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$190.00
$36.10
- YES
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?
30 shares @ 16.0¢·now 20.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.00
$1.20
- NO
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 74.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$4.38
$0.67
- NO
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?
1 shares @ 63.0¢·now 82.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.82
$0.19
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs?$0.00Jun 18, 04:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the total number of TSA passengers for March 9 - March 15 be between 17,000,000 and 17,500,000?$0.00Jun 18, 04:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Noah Wyle (The Pitt) win Best Actor – Television Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?$0.00Jun 18, 04:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill CA Bucaramanga win on 2026-02-15?$114.00Jun 18, 04:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?$236.00Jun 18, 04:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Tariff" during the announcement on December 22?$0.00Jun 18, 04:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?$0.00Jun 18, 04:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the total number of TSA passengers for March 6 be between 2,600,000 and 2,800,000?$0.00Jun 18, 04:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the total number of TSA passengers for March 9 be between 2,400,000 and 2,600,000?$0.00Jun 18, 04:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%?$0.00Jun 18, 04:50 UTC
- REDEEMMid-America Christian Evangels vs. Campbell Fighting Camels$318.00Jun 18, 04:50 UTC
- REDEEMClemson Tigers vs. Western Carolina Catamounts$505.50Jun 18, 04:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump’s approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on February 6, 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 04:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?$43.07Apr 21, 03:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?$227.07Apr 11, 18:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?$23.49Apr 11, 18:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?$160.65Apr 11, 18:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026?$29.52Apr 11, 10:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026?$31.16Apr 11, 10:24 UTC
- TRADESELLTech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026?$9.45Apr 11, 09:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 72/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $159.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 30, 14:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 04:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.