Immediate-Geology
0x734c9351bdb7e4ae00a449fe62a06c61b5971d86
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
38
Open notional
$696.89
Total PnL
$-362.37
Realised
$23.19
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- NO
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
630 shares @ 14.9¢·now 13.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$85.33
$-8.50
- YES
US x China Military clash before 2027?
1986 shares @ 7.6¢·now 4.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$85.20
$-66.30
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
22250 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$55.63
$8.68
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
1346 shares @ 5.9¢·now 3.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$51.82
$-28.18
- YES
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
356 shares @ 18.2¢·now 13.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$46.28
$-18.38
- YES
Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?
321 shares @ 31.1¢·now 13.1¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$41.94
$-58.05
- NO
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
285 shares @ 17.9¢·now 11.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$31.47
$-19.57
- NO
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
338 shares @ 8.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$28.69
$1.69
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
116 shares @ 24.3¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$28.39
$0.28
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
113 shares @ 61.7¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$26.65
$-43.35
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.05Jul 29, 10:27 UTC
- TRADESELLBank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.83Jul 29, 10:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.10Jul 29, 10:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$10.50Jul 29, 10:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$5.25Jul 29, 10:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?$18.52Jul 29, 10:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$32.80Jul 29, 01:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$5.25Jul 29, 01:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$5.25Jul 29, 01:48 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$43.43Jul 29, 01:46 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?$7.26Jul 28, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$10.00Jul 28, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$10.50Jul 28, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$10.50Jul 28, 07:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$38.11Jul 28, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$33.75Jul 28, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?$51.77Jul 28, 06:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$31.28Jul 28, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$10.50Jul 28, 06:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $15.05
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 02:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 10:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.