Messy-Reamer
0x73f4b6eec12bc9bbe8de04d477335d3292cd0eee
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$456.00
Total PnL
$-219.04
Realised
$93.25
Win rate
16%
165 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
186 shares @ 6.2¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$56.63
$45.17
- YES
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
54 shares @ 35.5¢·now 82.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$44.19
$25.06
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
37 shares @ 50.6¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$25.46
$6.65
- YES
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
18 shares @ 23.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$18.18
$13.88
- NO
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
22 shares @ 57.2¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$17.81
$5.46
- YES
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
19 shares @ 63.7¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$17.55
$5.20
- NO
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
16 shares @ 66.1¢·now 75.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$11.81
$1.47
- NO
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
9 shares @ 89.9¢·now 91.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.62
$0.16
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
10 shares @ 66.6¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$8.05
$1.55
- NO
OpenAI IPO before 2027?
9 shares @ 77.0¢·now 83.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.66
$0.55
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$7.52Aug 19, 12:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$6.07Aug 19, 12:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$7.88Aug 19, 12:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%?$7.91Aug 13, 15:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%?$4.46Aug 13, 15:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%?$5.44Aug 13, 15:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%?$0.69Aug 13, 15:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner$2.83Aug 8, 08:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group$2.83Aug 8, 07:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$5.56Aug 8, 06:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: WW Team vs ex-RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner$1.31Aug 6, 18:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?$1.25Aug 6, 17:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier$1.05Aug 4, 08:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner$1.08Aug 4, 07:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?$1.21Aug 4, 07:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Johnny Speeds (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I Playoffs$1.33Aug 4, 05:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?$1.08Aug 4, 04:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$1.30Aug 4, 04:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?$1.93Aug 4, 00:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Grêmio Esports vs paiN Academy (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage$1.59Aug 3, 22:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
63/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
16% win rate over 165 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.
165 closed markets, 16% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $3.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 1, 18:54 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 12:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 165 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.