Glistening-Contributor
0x748ac19f73c96312e98227f49f65699542943c56
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
66
Open notional
$33.6K
Total PnL
$4.5K
Realised
$4.7K
Win rate
90%
42 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 66- NO
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
7107 shares @ 72.2¢·now 75.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.3K
$197.08
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
7500 shares @ 56.2¢·now 63.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$4.8K
$547.59
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
6198 shares @ 50.7¢·now 45.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.8K
$-323.67
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
2000 shares @ 75.4¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.6K
$81.29
- NO
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
1922 shares @ 63.7¢·now 80.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.5K
$322.20
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
2000 shares @ 71.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.4K
$-30.20
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?
1597 shares @ 75.4¢·now 86.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.4K
$176.55
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
1000 shares @ 84.5¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$915.00
$70.00
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
1000 shares @ 78.8¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$885.08
$96.68
- NO
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?
1000 shares @ 67.9¢·now 88.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$880.30
$200.59
Recent activity
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?$0.17Aug 3, 20:25 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?$0.01Aug 3, 20:08 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?$5.00Aug 3, 19:43 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?$0.45Aug 3, 19:21 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$140.00Aug 3, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$120.00Aug 3, 18:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?$138.37Aug 3, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?$0.92Aug 3, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYKash Patel out by December 31?$25.00Aug 3, 13:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$13.60Aug 3, 12:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$33.33Aug 3, 12:10 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$130.00Aug 3, 11:50 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$130.00Aug 3, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$0.99Aug 3, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$5.37Aug 3, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$1.44Aug 3, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$0.65Aug 3, 10:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$2.43Aug 3, 10:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$0.84Aug 3, 10:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$31.25Aug 3, 10:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
75/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
90% win rate over 42 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
42 closed markets, 90% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $60.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 2, 10:28 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 3, 20:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 42 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.