0x75d158c1249bc6763c1eeb991cfb0d3788ac90da
0x75d158c1249bc6763c1eeb991cfb0d3788ac90da
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$39.44
Total PnL
$2.73
Realised
$-0.97
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
80 shares @ 10.9¢·now 35.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$28.04
$19.32
- YES
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?
105 shares @ 4.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.67
$0.47
- YES
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?
72 shares @ 5.3¢·now 2.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.90
$-1.87
- YES
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?
44 shares @ 4.0¢·now 3.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.54
$-0.22
- YES
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027?
62 shares @ 4.7¢·now 1.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.99
$-1.92
- YES
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027?
25 shares @ 14.0¢·now 3.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.91
$-2.59
- YES
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
25 shares @ 20.0¢·now 2.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.56
$-4.44
- YES
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?
30 shares @ 9.0¢·now 1.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.42
$-2.28
- YES
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?
8 shares @ 4.0¢·now 2.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.20
$-0.10
- YES
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027?
29 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.20
$-2.69
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $80 on July 9?$5.00Jul 9, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $80 on July 9?$4.95Jul 9, 14:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $80 on July 8?$5.00Jul 8, 16:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 8?$25.00Jul 8, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 8?$23.79Jul 8, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $80 on July 8?$4.95Jul 8, 13:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 7?$76.00Jul 7, 16:17 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum above 1,740 on July 7, 10AM ET?$144.00Jul 7, 14:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum above 1,740 on July 7, 10AM ET?$142.66Jul 7, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 7?$74.94Jul 7, 12:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be above $1.20 on July 6?$10.44Jul 6, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.20 on July 6?$10.34Jul 6, 13:00 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum above 1,720 on July 5, 8PM ET?$5.00Jul 6, 00:20 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum above 1,730 on July 5, 8PM ET?$5.00Jul 6, 00:19 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum above 1,750 on July 5, 8PM ET?$5.00Jul 6, 00:18 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum above 1,740 on July 5, 8PM ET?$5.00Jul 6, 00:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin above 62,400 on July 5, 8PM ET?$5.00Jul 6, 00:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin above 61,800 on July 5, 8PM ET?$5.00Jul 6, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin above 65,400 on July 5, 8PM ET?$5.00Jul 6, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above 62,400 on July 5, 8PM ET?$4.95Jul 5, 23:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $14.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 4, 23:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 9, 16:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.