Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?
Probability
7¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$10.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $10.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5984.1h
- 15:55SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.7pp
to 7¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.6pp
to 7¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.6pp
to 7¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.7pp
to 7¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.1pp
to 7¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.4pp
to 7¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 7¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.3pp
to 7¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.1pp
to 7¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.1pp
to 7¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.0pp
to 7¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.2pp
to 7¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 7¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.3pp
to 7¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.2pp
to 7¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.2pp
to 7¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.1pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.2pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.1pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.1pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.7pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.0pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.2pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.9pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.1pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.8pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.1pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.0pp
to 7¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).