Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027?
Probability
7¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$16.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5980h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $16.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5980.3h
- 19:44SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5980h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 7¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Federal ReserveOfficial government sourceextracted · highfederalreserve.gov
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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