Fickle-Version
0x77618840605a965ec8b6092afa5e829e1a75f504
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.6K
Total PnL
$-30.34
Realised
$53.53
Win rate
67%
55 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
66 shares @ 84.5¢·now 96.7¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$63.79
$8.04
- NO
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
58 shares @ 89.3¢·now 92.3¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$53.60
$1.76
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
312 shares @ 23.9¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$51.47
$-23.16
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
70 shares @ 58.6¢·now 63.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$44.54
$3.41
- YES
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
47 shares @ 85.3¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$39.26
$-0.84
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
69 shares @ 30.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$36.91
$16.19
- YES
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
49 shares @ 62.3¢·now 74.2¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$36.60
$5.87
- NO
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
46 shares @ 62.6¢·now 74.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$34.21
$5.47
- NO
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
37 shares @ 88.7¢·now 87.4¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$32.32
$-0.49
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?
34 shares @ 78.4¢·now 94.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$32.15
$5.47
Recent activity
- REDEEMNo change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?$2.00Aug 11, 07:03 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 11, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?$5.00Aug 10, 18:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?$10.00Aug 10, 18:02 UTC
- MERGEWill Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?$8.00Aug 10, 09:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?$2.00Aug 10, 09:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 10, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?$2.00Aug 9, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be fewer than 3 ChatGPT outages in August 2026?$1.85Aug 9, 18:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 9, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?$0.00Aug 8, 06:04 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?$0.00Aug 8, 06:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?$0.00Aug 8, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 8, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?$0.00Aug 7, 23:24 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?$3.04Aug 7, 22:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Khamenei post 5-9 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?$0.00Aug 7, 18:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?$0.00Aug 7, 18:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill CZ post 0-19 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?$4.00Aug 7, 18:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?$3.00Aug 7, 18:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
78/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 55 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
2 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
55 closed markets, 67% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $1.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 5, 07:59 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 07:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 55 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.