Fickle-Version
0x77618840605a965ec8b6092afa5e829e1a75f504
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$858.63
Total PnL
$63.50
Realised
$70.02
Win rate
96%
48 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?
44 shares @ 4.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$43.76
$42.00
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
182 shares @ 23.5¢·now 13.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.58
$-18.20
- YES
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?
27 shares @ 20.5¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$23.11
$17.51
- NO
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?
22 shares @ 86.9¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$19.25
$0.14
- NO
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
22 shares @ 84.2¢·now 83.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$18.26
$-0.26
- NO
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
66 shares @ 31.3¢·now 27.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$18.15
$-2.51
- NO
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?
52 shares @ 32.3¢·now 26.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$13.78
$-3.00
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
364 shares @ 13.6¢·now 3.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$13.28
$-36.33
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23?
37 shares @ 15.1¢·now 34.9¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$12.93
$7.33
- YES
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?
23 shares @ 8.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$12.07
$10.23
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova$2.05Jun 23, 13:28 UTC
- REDEEMLexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Jurak/Ruzic vs Errani/Paolini$4.00Jun 23, 13:26 UTC
- REDEEMBad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez$0.00Jun 23, 13:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 23?$0.00Jun 23, 12:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYLexus Eastbourne Open: Talia Gibson vs Madison Keys$1.85Jun 23, 12:27 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: Coalesce vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Group A$2.60Jun 23, 12:22 UTC
- REDEEMMallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Tabilo$0.00Jun 23, 12:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez$1.89Jun 23, 11:45 UTC
- REDEEMBad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro$0.00Jun 23, 11:27 UTC
- REDEEMDota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner$0.00Jun 23, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYMallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse$1.85Jun 23, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYMallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse$2.47Jun 23, 11:17 UTC
- REDEEMBad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova$6.46Jun 23, 11:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYRomanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?$1.36Jun 23, 10:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYMallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Tabilo$1.99Jun 23, 10:16 UTC
- MERGEMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$2.00Jun 23, 10:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?$2.06Jun 23, 10:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?$2.04Jun 23, 10:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$1.38Jun 23, 10:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 Week of June 22 2026?$6.00Jun 23, 09:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
77/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
96% win rate over 48 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
48 closed markets, 96% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $1.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 07:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 23, 13:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 48 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.