Big-Sigh
0x7781b5bbcfe0ae6ee92c4447e3da2cf9f2223f50
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$383.62
Total PnL
$-156.88
Realised
$0.80
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?
109 shares @ 81.2¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$103.05
$14.54
- NO
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?
53 shares @ 91.0¢·now 98.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$51.81
$3.82
- NO
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
63 shares @ 80.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$49.98
$-0.31
- NO
Will Brent Hennrich advance to the general election for WA-03?
48 shares @ 95.1¢·now 95.3¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$46.03
$0.07
- NO
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?
47 shares @ 96.3¢·now 97.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$45.82
$0.70
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in July 2026?
63 shares @ 80.2¢·now 49.7¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$31.10
$-19.09
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in July?
31 shares @ 97.4¢·now 91.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$28.23
$-1.80
- NO
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026?
24 shares @ 91.7¢·now 96.2¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$23.37
$1.09
- NO
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
4 shares @ 95.0¢·now 98.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.23
$0.14
- NO
Will Trump Mobile release a phone by June 30, 2026?
106 shares @ 80.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-85.10
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in July?$30.07Jul 29, 18:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?$23.03Jul 29, 06:32 UTC
- TRADEBUY0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?$45.12Jul 29, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in July 2026?$50.69Jul 29, 06:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$54.64Jul 28, 21:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$32.02Jul 28, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$50.70Jul 28, 18:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$47.71Jul 28, 12:49 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$39.77Jul 26, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$25.32Jul 25, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$44.10Jul 20, 18:03 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026?$40.43Jul 20, 15:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?$47.98Jul 15, 06:04 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$58.58Jul 15, 00:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$46.36Jul 14, 18:04 UTC
- TRADESELLIAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?$46.18Jul 14, 15:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31?$47.58Jul 13, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$22.96Jul 13, 18:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $40.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 06:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 18:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.