Surprised-Monger
0x7a4112fb942e70b776d61a322b9cfaeeb582a18f
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
43
Open notional
$22.35
Total PnL
$-19.30
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 43- NO
FDA approves Outlook Therapeutics' ONS-5010?
19 shares @ 5.4¢·now 11.9¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$2.21
$1.21
- NO
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?
6 shares @ 17.0¢·now 32.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.88
$0.88
- NO
Will Trump pardon anyone by July 31?
2 shares @ 52.0¢·now 67.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.29
$0.29
- NO
Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31?
2 shares @ 49.3¢·now 59.8¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.21
$0.21
- NO
ChatGPT Full Outage by August 31?
2 shares @ 43.0¢·now 51.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.19
$0.19
- NO
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30?
2 shares @ 65.0¢·now 73.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.12
$0.12
- NO
Government shutdown by October 1?
2 shares @ 54.0¢·now 59.0¢·exp Oct 2, 2026$1.09
$0.09
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?
3 shares @ 35.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- NO
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
2 shares @ 62.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Sep 6, 2026$0.96
$-0.04
- NO
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?
2 shares @ 54.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Aug 30, 2026$0.95
$-0.05
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYMoonshot publishes Kimi K3 weights by July 27?$1.04Jul 22, 05:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYChatGPT Full Outage by August 31?$1.02Jul 22, 05:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US Senate pass at least $20 billion in supplemental War Funding by September 30?$1.02Jul 22, 05:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Huliaipilske by September 30?$1.00Jul 22, 05:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYGovernment shutdown by October 1?$1.02Jul 22, 05:41 UTC
- REDEEMIran successfully targets shipping on July 17?$5.26Jul 22, 05:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump admin declassify foreign election interference files by July 17?$1.04Jul 17, 18:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?$1.02Jul 17, 18:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US House pass the Sunshine Protection Act by July 17?$1.04Jul 17, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping on July 17?$1.00Jul 17, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump pardon anyone by July 31?$1.02Jul 17, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin meets with Iranian officials by August 31?$1.00Jul 17, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYFDA approves Outlook Therapeutics' ONS-5010?$1.04Jul 17, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYFDA approves Viatris' low-dose estrogen weekly patch?$1.02Jul 17, 15:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYFDA approves MannKind's FUROSCIX ReadyFlow Autoinjector?$1.03Jul 17, 15:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYTamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?$1.03Jul 17, 15:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYKansas Supreme Court Elections Amendment Passes?$1.01Jul 17, 15:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30?$1.00Jul 17, 15:16 UTC
- REDEEMNocries signs for a pro CS2 organization by June 30?$1.82Jul 17, 15:05 UTC
- REDEEMTrump's face on US gold coin by July 4?$2.08Jul 17, 15:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $0.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 26, 05:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 05:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.