0x7b14065318fc2f00e2c971bd4cb3770eda7f6d17
0x7b14065318fc2f00e2c971bd4cb3770eda7f6d17
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
122
Open notional
$255.59
Total PnL
$6.17
Realised
$8.30
Win rate
15%
33 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 122- MATHYS ERHARD
Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Mathys Erhard vs Ivan Marrero
5 shares @ 63.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$5.00
$1.85
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5 shares @ 97.9¢·now 98.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.90
$0.01
- NO
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?
5 shares @ 97.6¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.90
$0.02
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
5 shares @ 97.6¢·now 97.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$4.88
$-0.00
- NO
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
5 shares @ 97.2¢·now 97.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.87
$0.01
- NO
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 15, 2026?
5 shares @ 55.5¢·now 95.9¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$4.79
$2.02
- NO
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?
5 shares @ 95.7¢·now 95.6¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$4.78
$-0.01
- NO
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
5 shares @ 94.8¢·now 94.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.74
$0.00
- NO
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
5 shares @ 94.8¢·now 94.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.73
$-0.01
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August?
5 shares @ 94.5¢·now 94.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$4.72
$-0.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?$2.64Aug 7, 14:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?$0.57Aug 7, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series?$0.75Aug 7, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?$0.79Aug 7, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$3.95Aug 7, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?$3.71Aug 7, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?$2.70Aug 7, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?$0.90Aug 7, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?$3.13Aug 7, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?$0.72Aug 7, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?$4.88Aug 7, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?$1.10Aug 7, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$4.46Aug 7, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.11Aug 7, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day?$0.94Aug 7, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?$1.91Aug 7, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?$0.73Aug 7, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?$0.84Aug 7, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$0.62Aug 7, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by December 31?$3.45Aug 7, 13:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
15% win rate over 33 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
33 closed markets, 15% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 7, 13:31 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 7, 14:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 33 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.