Mortified-Patina
0x7eeab203c140f7a652f82943c5f4c7a2d9705ca2
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
69
Open notional
$283.57
Total PnL
$-2.0K
Realised
$56.09
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 69- YES
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
284 shares @ 20.0¢·now 19.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$53.96
$-2.84
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
115 shares @ 26.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$50.19
$20.19
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
69 shares @ 54.0¢·now 61.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$41.80
$4.80
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
70 shares @ 43.0¢·now 43.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$30.00
$0.00
- NO
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?
43 shares @ 70.0¢·now 68.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$29.14
$-0.86
- NO
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
27 shares @ 73.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$20.96
$0.96
- YES
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
143 shares @ 21.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.86
$-12.14
- YES
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
40 shares @ 24.7¢·now 22.9¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$9.29
$-0.71
- NO
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
10 shares @ 85.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.75
$0.25
- NO
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?
11 shares @ 90.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.50
$-1.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$59.07Jul 14, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?$30.00Jul 14, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$30.00Jul 14, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.38Jul 14, 20:24 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?$61.33Jul 14, 20:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.29Jul 14, 20:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.36Jul 14, 20:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$44.58Jul 10, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$5.03Jul 10, 09:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$25.17Jul 10, 09:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$5.03Jul 10, 09:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$5.05Jul 10, 09:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Indonesia recognize Israel by December 31?$10.57Jul 10, 09:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$20.75Jul 10, 09:58 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$6.87Jul 9, 05:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
19 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 19
- Avg trade size
- $19.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 00:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 20:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.