Unlined-Marshmallow
0x7f2928f6f7626b13fbac2d566b834e4764fc0760
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$52.7K
Total PnL
$-48.1K
Realised
$183.87
Win rate
69%
95 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
5600 shares @ 78.8¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.3K
$-128.03
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
3369 shares @ 94.1¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.2K
$14.63
- NO
Iran leadership change by July 31?
2800 shares @ 94.6¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.8K
$133.31
- NO
Yoon out of custody before 2027?
2692 shares @ 85.7¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.4K
$100.96
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
2000 shares @ 97.9¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.0K
$33.39
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
2600 shares @ 78.8¢·now 75.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$2.0K
$-89.55
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
1900 shares @ 79.9¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.9K
$370.20
- NO
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
2052 shares @ 86.3¢·now 90.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.9K
$83.07
- NO
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
1810 shares @ 75.8¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.8K
$403.58
- NO
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
1800 shares @ 90.4¢·now 93.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.7K
$54.31
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$2.33Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- REWARD$3.34Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$101.15Jul 28, 22:16 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$105.40Jul 28, 21:44 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$72.15Jul 28, 21:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?$200.00Jul 28, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?$190.60Jul 28, 15:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$78.00Jul 28, 14:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYNBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?$26.36Jul 28, 14:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYNBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?$60.52Jul 28, 14:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?$178.00Jul 28, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$149.55Jul 28, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$32.65Jul 28, 12:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?$197.55Jul 28, 11:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?$40.48Jul 28, 11:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?$27.60Jul 28, 11:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?$10.37Jul 28, 11:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$237.12Jul 28, 11:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$47.88Jul 28, 11:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
77/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
69% win rate over 95 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
95 closed markets, 69% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $99.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 16:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 95 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.