Thorough-Fault
0x7f334b1b90f493088b52a7611f75864c6f23914e
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$16.1K
Total PnL
$-54.3K
Realised
$51.63
Win rate
67%
55 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
6604 shares @ 66.8¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$5.1K
$643.33
- NO
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?
4272 shares @ 70.0¢·now 77.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$3.3K
$297.08
- NO
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?
2724 shares @ 71.6¢·now 74.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.0K
$64.35
- YES
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
2235 shares @ 63.0¢·now 74.9¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$1.7K
$265.24
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1302 shares @ 81.2¢·now 77.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.0K
$-54.69
- NO
Fed rate hike in 2026?
2169 shares @ 37.4¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$509.62
$-301.32
- YES
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
5136 shares @ 10.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$487.93
$-25.68
- NO
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
3224 shares @ 20.9¢·now 14.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$478.74
$-193.91
- NO
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?
506 shares @ 70.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$405.00
$50.77
- NO
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?
490 shares @ 49.6¢·now 68.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$333.32
$89.98
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYLoL: EKO Esports vs GMBLERS ESPORTS (BO1) - LIT Regular Season$9.62Jul 28, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Anubis Gaming vs GnG Amazigh - Game 2 Winner$0.24Jul 28, 16:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Anubis Gaming vs GnG Amazigh - Game 2 Winner$0.24Jul 28, 16:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Anubis Gaming vs GnG Amazigh - Game 2 Winner$0.24Jul 28, 16:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 28?$44.93Jul 28, 14:16 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 28?$44.98Jul 28, 14:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on July 28?$99.88Jul 28, 08:23 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on July 28?$99.98Jul 28, 08:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C or higher on July 28?$0.70Jul 27, 15:59 UTC
- MERGEWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$127.66Jul 27, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$102.90Jul 27, 15:27 UTC
- MERGEWill Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?$109.98Jul 27, 15:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?$82.87Jul 27, 15:24 UTC
- MERGEWill STRC hit $100 by September 30?$188.00Jul 27, 12:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$36.35Jul 27, 11:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?$708.76Jul 27, 11:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill CXMT’s market cap be 400 billion yuan or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026?$5.0KJul 27, 11:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CXMT’s market cap be 400 billion yuan or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026?$2.0KJul 27, 07:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CXMT’s market cap be 400 billion yuan or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026?$3.0KJul 27, 07:45 UTC
- MERGEWill Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?$71.13Jul 26, 19:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 55 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
55 closed markets, 67% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $213.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 16:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 17:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 55 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.