Muffled-Turban-Champion
0x8060c07b8dbd20c2e416d9f63d9f730a9c0b8873
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$372.18
Total PnL
$97.34
Realised
$121.54
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
185 shares @ 80.9¢·now 86.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$160.34
$10.34
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
91 shares @ 88.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$79.55
$-0.45
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
69 shares @ 90.5¢·now 98.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$67.73
$5.35
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
39 shares @ 76.3¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$32.85
$2.85
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
22 shares @ 67.2¢·now 82.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$18.42
$3.42
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?
11 shares @ 89.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$10.73
$0.73
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 16?
284 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$2.56
$-17.44
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on August 14?
100 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
97 shares @ 10.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
21 shares @ 67.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$0.00
$-14.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Aug 16, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 16?$20.93Aug 15, 14:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$100.00Aug 15, 12:51 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 14, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on August 14?$5.24Aug 13, 15:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 13, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$117.65Aug 12, 18:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$10.23Aug 12, 12:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$80.38Aug 12, 04:35 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$66.45Aug 11, 08:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?$9.76Aug 11, 02:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$10.49Aug 10, 06:51 UTC
- TRADESELLNATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?$10.96Aug 7, 09:36 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$9.11Aug 7, 09:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$100.00Aug 6, 05:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$10.18Aug 6, 05:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$23.37Aug 6, 05:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$73.33Aug 6, 05:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$44.75Aug 6, 05:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $26.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 11:16 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 16, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.