Testy-Operator
0x80a4552cdcde3b861b8adc146ab1fbd4711022cc
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$41.5K
Total PnL
$-32.7K
Realised
$-1.8K
Win rate
73%
102 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
6000 shares @ 74.1¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$4.8K
$381.00
- NO
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
4995 shares @ 78.4¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.7K
$754.87
- NO
US recession by end of 2026?
5218 shares @ 68.5¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$4.6K
$991.26
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
5000 shares @ 81.9¢·now 78.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$3.9K
$-187.50
- NO
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?
3752 shares @ 87.7¢·now 96.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.6K
$316.33
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
3000 shares @ 42.2¢·now 69.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$2.1K
$819.63
- NO
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
1900 shares @ 77.4¢·now 96.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.8K
$358.74
- YES
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?
8600 shares @ 20.9¢·now 19.9¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$1.7K
$-90.83
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
5050 shares @ 29.6¢·now 19.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$977.17
$-516.55
- NO
Will Swim – BTS be the top song for 2026?
1015 shares @ 54.2¢·now 94.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$961.06
$410.90
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?$1.56Jul 28, 17:11 UTC
- TRADESELLFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$565.51Jul 28, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?$4.59Jul 28, 16:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$103.50Jul 28, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$556.76Jul 28, 16:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Melania" this week?$3.15Jul 28, 02:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$24.57Jul 28, 00:50 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$7.80Jul 28, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.31Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$4.43Jul 28, 00:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$14.50Jul 28, 00:04 UTC
- REWARD$15.50Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$4.47Jul 27, 20:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Stupid Question" this week?$33.84Jul 27, 18:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kawhi play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?$67.76Jul 27, 16:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kawhi play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?$9.79Jul 27, 16:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kawhi play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?$28.20Jul 27, 16:18 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate hike in 2026?$119.16Jul 27, 14:15 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate hike in 2026?$15.92Jul 27, 14:15 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate hike in 2026?$1.50Jul 27, 14:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
73% win rate over 102 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
102 closed markets, 73% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $67.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 06:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 17:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 102 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.