Physical-Muskrat
0x81c0d7a80a1b64d630f07ad007a34eeb6f723fa5
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$118.62
Total PnL
$-276.49
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- YES
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
435 shares @ 27.2¢·now 10.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$43.50
$-74.73
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?
40 shares @ 65.0¢·now 97.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$39.16
$13.16
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
15 shares @ 80.0¢·now 75.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$11.32
$-0.68
- NO
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
16 shares @ 65.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$10.96
$0.56
- YES
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
10 shares @ 68.0¢·now 85.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$8.57
$1.77
- YES
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?
20 shares @ 17.0¢·now 25.6¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$5.11
$1.71
- YES
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?
499 shares @ 32.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-160.22
- YES
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?
86 shares @ 23.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-20.38
- YES
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?
45 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-4.95
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?$10.40Jul 28, 17:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$12.12Jul 28, 16:34 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$0.10Jul 26, 16:23 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 31?$0.55Jul 26, 16:23 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$0.70Jul 26, 16:23 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$1.10Jul 26, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$3.40Jul 24, 16:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$2.90Jul 24, 14:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$4.10Jul 23, 13:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$4.00Jul 23, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$0.25Jul 23, 12:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$0.75Jul 23, 12:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$6.80Jul 22, 17:04 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 21?$16.91Jul 22, 02:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$22.77Jul 21, 02:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?$0.47Jul 20, 13:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 21?$15.81Jul 20, 09:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$7.94Jul 19, 05:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$9.27Jul 19, 05:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.33Jul 15, 20:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $6.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 13:39 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 17:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.