Cultivated-Humour
0x81c61ebc8eb22d98e97e26a4ea993c047fc28d4e
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
53
Open notional
$41.69
Total PnL
$-38.51
Realised
$0.55
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 53- YES
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
1333 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.4¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$6.00
$0.00
- YES
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
36 shares @ 8.4¢·now 11.3¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$4.00
$1.00
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
13 shares @ 7.7¢·now 22.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$2.95
$1.95
- YES
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
7 shares @ 26.7¢·now 36.9¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.76
$0.76
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
2 shares @ 92.0¢·now 95.8¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$2.08
$0.08
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
5 shares @ 37.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.08
$0.08
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
4 shares @ 76.2¢·now 56.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.04
$-0.71
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
2 shares @ 85.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.94
$-0.06
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
4 shares @ 51.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.71
$-0.29
- NO
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
8 shares @ 25.6¢·now 19.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.49
$-0.51
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$4.48Jul 21, 01:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$3.07Jul 21, 01:44 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$0.08Jul 21, 01:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$1.03Jul 21, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$1.05Jul 21, 01:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$5.25Jul 21, 01:39 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$0.00Jul 21, 01:38 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$1.25Jul 21, 01:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$1.05Jul 21, 01:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$1.03Jul 21, 01:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$3.12Jul 21, 01:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$0.00Jul 21, 01:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$1.06Jul 21, 01:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$2.08Jul 21, 01:10 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET$1.20Jul 21, 01:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET$1.05Jul 21, 01:06 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$3.56Jul 21, 01:06 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$3.62Jul 21, 01:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$1.05Jul 21, 01:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $1.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 19:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.