0x82b3ffaa563cca2f88c8de1150523294020b3768
0x82b3ffaa563cca2f88c8de1150523294020b3768
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$90.12
Total PnL
$12.84
Realised
$5.82
Win rate
29%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
46 shares @ 2.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$45.83
$44.73
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?
20 shares @ 22.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$20.14
$15.63
- NO
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
10 shares @ 82.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$10.16
$1.78
- NO
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
8 shares @ 90.7¢·now 94.3¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$7.97
$0.30
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
2 shares @ 81.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.04
$0.04
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
3 shares @ 40.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.38
$0.31
- NO
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
3 shares @ 61.0¢·now 36.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.19
$-0.80
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
2 shares @ 43.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.18
$0.11
- YES
Will at least 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?
6 shares @ 12.0¢·now 4.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.23
$-0.45
- YES
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
122 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.10
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill at least 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?$0.00Aug 17, 10:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill at least 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?$0.07Aug 16, 23:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill at least 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?$0.01Aug 14, 18:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill at least 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?$0.01Aug 14, 15:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill at least 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?$0.94Aug 2, 02:43 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by September 30?$1.03Aug 2, 02:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$0.01Jul 30, 15:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$0.04Jul 29, 18:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$0.07Jul 29, 16:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$0.01Jul 28, 13:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$0.02Jul 28, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by September 30?$1.10Jul 25, 22:10 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by September 30?$0.50Jul 25, 14:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$0.10Jul 25, 10:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$0.14Jul 25, 10:16 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$0.02Jul 24, 18:34 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$0.06Jul 24, 18:18 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$0.05Jul 24, 16:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$0.27Jul 24, 10:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by September 30?$1.10Jul 24, 10:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 20:03 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 10:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.