Wallet digest

active

Activity score

32/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-121.07

Realised

$-42.01

Win rate

17 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 17

YES
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?
28490 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-28.46
UP
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET
12 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026
$0.00
$-6.37
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET
11 shares @ 40.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026
$0.00
$-4.35
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET
11 shares @ 50.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026
$0.00
$-5.40
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET
9 shares @ 31.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026
$0.00
$-2.68
NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
8 shares @ 24.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026
$0.00
$-1.99
UP
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET
7 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026
$0.00
$-3.06
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
7 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026
$0.00
$-2.62
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET
6 shares @ 41.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026
$0.00
$-2.46
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET
6 shares @ 37.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026
$0.00
$-2.17

Recent activity

TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$2.07Jul 23, 01:21 UTC
TRADESELLWill Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?$3.32Jul 17, 14:41 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:11 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?$3.47Jul 6, 19:35 UTC
TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$4.88Jul 6, 19:31 UTC
TRADESELLWill the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?$7.91Jul 6, 19:31 UTC
TRADESELLHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$8.43Jul 6, 19:31 UTC
TRADESELLWill Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?$1.60Jul 6, 19:30 UTC
TRADESELLWill Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$4.30Jul 6, 19:30 UTC
TRADESELLWill Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$4.27Jul 6, 19:30 UTC
TRADESELLWill Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$2.88Jul 6, 19:30 UTC
TRADESELLWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$7.31Jul 6, 19:29 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?$14.27Jul 6, 19:28 UTC
TRADESELLWill the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?$6.02Jul 6, 19:28 UTC
TRADESELLWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$3.17Jul 6, 19:28 UTC
TRADESELLWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$7.63Jul 6, 19:28 UTC
TRADESELLWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$7.35Jul 6, 19:28 UTC
TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$4.78Jul 6, 19:28 UTC
TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?$6.57Jul 6, 19:27 UTC
TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$15.24Jul 6, 19:27 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

48/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

6% win rate over 17 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity38 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence57 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry82 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk36 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 32
Avg trade size: $5.47
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 25, 00:14 UTC
Last active: Jul 23, 01:21 UTC
Win rate sample: 17 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 03:53:29 UTC·src:Polymarket Data