Exhausted-Walker
0x8e9616f9c3b78b1998b5c5acbbd6c16af823c895
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$152.06
Total PnL
$-467.88
Realised
$-86.54
Win rate
17%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Record crypto liquidation in 2026?
84 shares @ 72.0¢·now 92.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$78.04
$17.56
- NO
Will pump.fun buybacks hit $500M by December 31?
51 shares @ 50.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$34.42
$8.92
- NO
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
52 shares @ 56.0¢·now 59.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$30.68
$1.56
- YES
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?
33 shares @ 86.0¢·now 24.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$7.92
$-20.46
- NO
Will Fomo launch a token by June 30 2026?
1 shares @ 73.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.00
$0.27
- YES
Will the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?
477 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-90.63
- NO
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?
284 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-56.80
- NO
Will Jacob Elordi be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
188 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-35.72
- YES
Will Leavitt say "Epstein" or "Hoax" during the next White House press briefing?
170 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-47.60
- NO
Will Leavitt say "Baby" or "Pregnant" during the next White House press briefing?
148 shares @ 73.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-108.04
Recent activity
- REDEEM2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 70% by March 31?$0.50Jun 4, 10:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be nine or ten announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?$16.00Jun 4, 10:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$67.00Jun 4, 10:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Joachim Trier be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?$114.00Jun 4, 10:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?$135.00Jun 4, 10:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US strike Syria next?$177.00Jun 4, 10:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Supha Xayprasith-Mays win the 2026 Arkansas Governor Democratic primary election?$212.00Jun 4, 10:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apocalypse in the Tropics be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?$489.00Jun 4, 10:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?$3.20Apr 21, 11:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?$5.44Apr 21, 11:02 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $1B raised on Coinbase in 2026?$7.48Apr 21, 04:52 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 1, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 31, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 30, 00:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 29, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 28, 00:27 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 27, 00:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 25, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 24, 00:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
3 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 3
- Avg trade size
- $5.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 22, 00:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 4, 10:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.