Scholarly-Armchair
0x8f46174d4456085e5388ff5f4aa41c508520810f
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
20
Open notional
$10.69
Total PnL
$-10.29
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- YES
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
3 shares @ 59.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$3.36
$1.36
- YES
Will Brinker Harding be the Republican nominee for NE-02?
2 shares @ 57.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$1.75
$0.75
- YES
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?
2 shares @ 63.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$1.59
$0.59
- YES
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2 shares @ 55.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.06
$0.06
- YES
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?
2 shares @ 63.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.98
$-0.02
- YES
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
2 shares @ 62.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.98
$-0.02
- YES
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
2 shares @ 56.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.67
$-0.33
- YES
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
2 shares @ 53.0¢·now 16.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.30
$-0.70
- YES
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?
2 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?
2 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYVCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heels$1.00Mar 16, 12:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYTCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes$1.00Mar 16, 12:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYLehigh Mountain Hawks vs. Prairie View A&M Panthers$1.00Mar 16, 12:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYHoward Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers$1.00Mar 16, 12:04 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026?$1.39Mar 16, 12:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Government shutdown end by November 15?$1.67Mar 16, 12:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$1.92Mar 16, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jan 14, 07:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$1.00Jan 14, 07:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$1.00Jan 14, 07:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?$1.00Dec 15, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$1.00Dec 15, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brinker Harding be the Republican nominee for NE-02?$1.00Dec 15, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?$1.00Dec 15, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?$1.00Dec 15, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.00Dec 15, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?$1.00Dec 15, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?$1.00Dec 15, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Eric Swalwell advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?$1.00Dec 15, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$1.00Dec 15, 07:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $1.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 11:43 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 16, 12:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.