Delirious-Prejudice
0x9094c89f2567315d37e9fc78ac71722fbe2ddcab
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$140.19
Total PnL
$-13.2K
Realised
$-448.92
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Iran leadership change by July 31?
61 shares @ 95.2¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$60.67
$2.42
- YES
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?
48 shares @ 91.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$48.35
$4.19
- YES
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
348 shares @ 7.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.66
$-8.70
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
50 shares @ 30.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.66
$-3.22
- YES
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
267 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.47
$-0.40
- YES
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
435 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.3¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.09
$-1.52
- YES
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
210 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.73
$-1.15
- YES
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
373 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$0.56
$-2.05
- SPURS
Spurs vs. Thunder
685884 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-771.62
- ARTHUR FERY
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Arthur Fery vs Pedro Martinez
251320 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-365.17
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$1.47Jul 27, 22:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$14.82Jul 27, 02:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$1.92Jul 25, 04:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$14.40Jul 25, 04:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$14.49Jul 25, 04:21 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$14.56Jul 24, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$14.91Jul 24, 22:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$14.72Jul 24, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$14.88Jul 24, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$14.72Jul 24, 18:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$14.72Jul 24, 18:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?$14.55Jul 24, 18:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$14.49Jul 24, 17:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?$2.67Jul 24, 09:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?$6.23Jul 24, 08:19 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$14.91Jul 24, 07:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?$4.45Jul 24, 06:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?$14.24Jul 24, 06:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by August 31?$14.56Jul 24, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by July 31?$14.58Jul 24, 04:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $12.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 14, 10:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 22:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.