Wallet digest

active

Activity score

94/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$975.97

Total PnL

$-207.41

Realised

$52.45

Win rate

100%

5 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 17

YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1500 shares @ 7.0¢·now 9.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$139.50
$34.50
NO
Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?
200 shares @ 48.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028
$118.99
$23.00
NO
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?
150 shares @ 66.0¢·now 68.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$102.00
$3.00
NO
Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026?
134 shares @ 61.4¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$96.95
$14.80
YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
400 shares @ 25.0¢·now 20.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$80.20
$-19.80
NO
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?
200 shares @ 59.0¢·now 36.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028
$73.00
$-45.00
YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
600 shares @ 16.0¢·now 11.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$69.89
$-26.10
NO
Will Tuyo launch a token by September 30, 2027?
200 shares @ 49.5¢·now 34.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028
$68.00
$-31.00
YES
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
200 shares @ 57.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$61.00
$-53.00
NO
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?
100 shares @ 62.0¢·now 57.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028
$56.99
$-5.01

Recent activity

YIELD$0.02Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 24, 00:12 UTC
TRADESELLWill Pacifica launch a token by December 31 2026?$164.40Jul 23, 21:28 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 19, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 15, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
TRADESELLWill Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2027?$56.33Jul 12, 04:48 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 12, 00:17 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 11, 00:13 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

27/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Thin resolved sample

Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

100% win rate over 5 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

review

13 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity57 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence17 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry65 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk56 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 13
Avg trade size: $33.29
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 23, 00:11 UTC
Last active: Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
Win rate sample: 5 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 22:11:40 UTC·src:Polymarket Data