Tan-Frog
0x9249e0533e839665b037c49bab0334c7a552cc75
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
191
Open notional
$11.28
Total PnL
$-2.0K
Realised
$303.20
Win rate
92%
39 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 191- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?
69 shares @ 27.8¢·now 6.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.50
$-14.75
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?
71 shares @ 14.0¢·now 4.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.82
$-7.18
- YES
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 18.0¢·now 5.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.63
$-6.38
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
14 shares @ 37.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.34
$-3.87
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 2-8?
1273 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-33.84
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
1186 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-45.99
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 2-8?
949 shares @ 35.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-339.64
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 2-8?
939 shares @ 7.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-68.21
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on March 6?
692 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-137.98
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March?
607 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-51.59
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 25, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 24, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 23, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 21, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 20, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 18, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 17, 00:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 16, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 15, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 12, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 11, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 10, 00:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
77/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
92% win rate over 39 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
17 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
39 closed markets, 92% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 17
- Avg trade size
- $23.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 13, 05:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 00:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 39 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.