0x93a93d84d44270b5b86dad5c28eff367a7d70b88
0x93a93d84d44270b5b86dad5c28eff367a7d70b88
Wallet digest
Activity score
99/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
75
Open notional
$53.3K
Total PnL
$5.3K
Realised
$168.44
Win rate
58%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 75- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
10000 shares @ 83.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$8.6K
$250.00
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
15608 shares @ 45.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$6.8K
$-234.12
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
10000 shares @ 24.3¢·now 46.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.6K
$2.2K
- YES
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?
4578 shares @ 52.6¢·now 94.8¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$4.3K
$1.9K
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
7457 shares @ 0.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$3.2K
$3.2K
- YES
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
8000 shares @ 36.6¢·now 37.5¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$3.0K
$75.77
- YES
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?
7650 shares @ 38.9¢·now 30.6¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$2.3K
$-633.44
- NO
Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?
2293 shares @ 52.5¢·now 94.8¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$2.2K
$969.84
- NO
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
2592 shares @ 68.5¢·now 65.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.7K
$-78.27
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
3000 shares @ 57.5¢·now 56.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.7K
$-30.30
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$5.94Jul 22, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$1.68Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$9.43Jul 22, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.57Jul 21, 23:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$104.79Jul 21, 23:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$20.55Jul 21, 23:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.00Jul 21, 19:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.15Jul 21, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$141.71Jul 21, 19:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$144.77Jul 21, 19:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$41.42Jul 21, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.61Jul 21, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.90Jul 21, 19:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$6.85Jul 21, 18:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$41.54Jul 21, 18:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$4.79Jul 21, 18:54 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 21?$16.78Jul 21, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$81.29Jul 21, 18:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?$49.04Jul 21, 18:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 21?$15.71Jul 21, 18:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
58% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
0%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
$5.7K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $44.51
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 19:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.