Well-Documented-Peek
0x94bbb8f7632d11dead6b8970646ad5655a5fc320
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$7.8K
Total PnL
$-895.43
Realised
$267.69
Win rate
63%
41 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
350 shares @ 78.1¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$327.61
$53.80
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
352 shares @ 81.2¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$311.76
$25.55
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
342 shares @ 93.8¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$309.35
$-11.46
- YES
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
660 shares @ 37.9¢·now 37.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$249.12
$-1.11
- YES
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
305 shares @ 73.9¢·now 74.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$225.75
$0.17
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
620 shares @ 24.8¢·now 27.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$167.10
$13.41
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?
150 shares @ 93.5¢·now 94.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$141.49
$1.50
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
186 shares @ 86.0¢·now 75.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$139.85
$-19.84
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
151 shares @ 93.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$139.23
$-0.75
- NO
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
145 shares @ 76.6¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$122.78
$11.47
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$1.03Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$20.45Jul 29, 00:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$22.26Jul 28, 23:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$208.43Jul 28, 22:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Save America Act" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$20.00Jul 28, 22:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$60.81Jul 28, 22:39 UTC
- MERGEUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$385.76Jul 28, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$63.16Jul 28, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$68.00Jul 28, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by December 31?$69.99Jul 28, 22:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$6.08Jul 28, 22:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$8.85Jul 28, 22:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$2.76Jul 28, 22:13 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$42.33Jul 28, 22:13 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$28.80Jul 28, 22:13 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$8.95Jul 28, 22:12 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$14.40Jul 28, 22:12 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$0.45Jul 28, 22:07 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$1.10Jul 28, 22:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
77/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 41 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
41 closed markets, 63% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $26.69
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 16:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 41 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.