Unfortunate-Service
0x94e4831a4e7d37ad0063def3707706b9158e6be5
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
141
Open notional
$239.24
Total PnL
$-737.81
Realised
$12.97
Win rate
73%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 141- YES
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?
320 shares @ 30.3¢·now 24.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$78.40
$-18.60
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
144 shares @ 24.3¢·now 26.7¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$38.38
$3.38
- YES
Will Josh Tenorio win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?
100 shares @ 70.0¢·now 31.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$31.00
$-39.00
- NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
50 shares @ 68.1¢·now 21.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.65
$-23.40
- YES
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?
151 shares @ 16.6¢·now 5.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$8.60
$-16.40
- YES
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch?
90 shares @ 20.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.75
$-11.25
- NO
Will Michael Katz be the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware?
50 shares @ 75.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Sep 15, 2026$6.75
$-30.75
- YES
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?
22 shares @ 58.0¢·now 29.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.49
$-6.49
- YES
Will John Shulli be the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware?
50 shares @ 69.0¢·now 12.3¢·exp Sep 15, 2026$6.13
$-28.38
- YES
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?
40 shares @ 47.6¢·now 15.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.02
$-13.04
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Eric Chung be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?$21.59Jul 26, 22:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Eric Chung be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?$3.50Jul 26, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$9.43Jul 24, 10:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$27.24Jul 24, 10:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$10.60Jul 24, 07:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Eric Chung be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?$1.00Jul 23, 05:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Eric Chung be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?$17.40Jul 20, 05:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?$12.37Jul 9, 10:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$11.45Jul 7, 11:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$20.00Jul 6, 00:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$25.00Jul 2, 11:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill New Zealand win on 2026-06-26?$5.14Jun 26, 11:40 UTC
- TRADESELLUS forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?$15.53Jun 25, 22:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?$5.15Jun 25, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jordan win on 2026-06-27?$3.08Jun 25, 12:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?$6.43Jun 24, 15:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$7.86Jun 21, 09:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the announcers say "Ankle" during the USA vs Australia FIFA World Cup Match?$25.00Jun 20, 01:46 UTC
- REWARD$1.84Jun 20, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Australia FIFA World Cup Match?$0.03Jun 19, 21:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
73% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $7.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 23, 13:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 26, 22:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.