0x950d8c8f097f00b36cda9c1aafe70730b1e8dac5
0x950d8c8f097f00b36cda9c1aafe70730b1e8dac5
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$18.63
Total PnL
$5.46
Realised
$1.63
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1701 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$9.36
$7.66
- YES
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
1688 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.53
$-0.84
- YES
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
1454 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.18
$-0.73
- YES
Will Yolanda Díaz be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
298 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.3¢·exp Mar 31, 2028$0.75
$-0.25
- YES
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1327 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.66
$-0.66
- YES
Will Ester Muñoz be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
251 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.3¢·exp Mar 31, 2028$0.63
$-0.27
- YES
Will Ernest Urtasun be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
236 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.3¢·exp Mar 31, 2028$0.59
$-0.26
- YES
Will Pepa Millán be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
227 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.3¢·exp Mar 31, 2028$0.57
$-0.11
- YES
Will Matt Heilala win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
192 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.3¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.48
$0.10
- YES
Will Cuca Gamarra be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
187 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.3¢·exp Mar 31, 2028$0.47
$-0.54
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the July interest rate announcement?$0.01Jul 7, 03:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the July interest rate announcement?$0.00Jul 6, 13:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?$0.07Jul 6, 01:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the July interest rate announcement?$0.00Jul 6, 00:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the July interest rate announcement?$0.00Jul 6, 00:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the July interest rate announcement?$0.02Jul 6, 00:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the July interest rate announcement?$0.00Jul 5, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the July interest rate announcement?$0.01Jul 5, 23:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?$1.70Jul 5, 21:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.10Jul 5, 17:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week 1?$0.00Jul 5, 11:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?$0.00Jul 5, 11:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30?$0.00Jul 5, 11:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok?$0.00Jul 5, 11:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?$0.00Jul 5, 11:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?$0.00Jul 5, 11:16 UTC
- REDEEMCuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30?$0.00Jul 5, 11:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.84Jul 3, 18:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$0.35Jul 3, 02:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?$0.00Jul 2, 22:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $0.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 09:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 7, 03:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.