PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Nov 3, 2026

Will Matt Heilala win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Probability

1¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.3pp

24h Vol

$417.37

Liquidity

$12.5K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.4pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 22:00Apr 25, 2026, 19:27
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 4589h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Thin liquidity

    Only $12.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 4588.5h

    LOW
  • 19:27Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 4589h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.3pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventAlaska Governor Election Winner
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Nov 3, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
natoOfficial government sourceextracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

14 wallets
Open on Polymarket