Light-Pantologist
0x978379e389e7e468c8abb1390d366e3e1f7dac60
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
23
Open notional
$613.14
Total PnL
$-56.85
Realised
$-20.93
Win rate
33%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- YES
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
1053 shares @ 37.3¢·now 49.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$521.19
$128.69
- YES
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
62 shares @ 64.7¢·now 56.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$34.60
$-5.40
- YES
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?
93 shares @ 26.8¢·now 28.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$26.58
$1.58
- YES
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026?
270 shares @ 13.0¢·now 8.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.58
$-13.42
- YES
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
59 shares @ 16.8¢·now 6.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$3.84
$-6.11
- NO
Discord IPO before 2027?
4 shares @ 32.1¢·now 64.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.41
$1.21
- YES
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?
31 shares @ 16.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.72
$-3.28
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
10 shares @ 18.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.53
$-1.20
- YES
Stripe IPO before 2027?
13 shares @ 8.0¢·now 3.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.42
$-0.58
- YES
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
3 shares @ 34.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.28
$-0.62
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?$2.61Jun 30, 23:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?$1.54Jun 26, 18:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?$12.50Jun 19, 16:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?$20.00Jun 19, 16:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?$32.50Jun 19, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?$4.00Jun 18, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?$15.00Jun 18, 19:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$3.64Jun 18, 19:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?$0.09Jun 18, 19:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump and Putin not meet?$0.35Jun 18, 19:03 UTC
- TRADESELLAnthropic IPO before 2027?$10.43Jun 18, 19:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWHOOP IPO before 2027?$2.55Jun 18, 19:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?$2.29Jun 18, 19:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$1.50Jun 14, 09:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$5.00Jun 14, 09:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?$6.15Jun 14, 09:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$4.00Jun 13, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?$20.00Jun 13, 14:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June?$7.00Jun 13, 14:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?$16.13Jun 13, 14:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $16.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 25, 12:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 30, 23:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.