Charming-Regulation
0x9a380aab3be1f8fba6e6096c6a9cf2d8feff260a
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
23
Open notional
$574.43
Total PnL
$328.52
Realised
$71.24
Win rate
75%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- NO
Will Chainlink reach $16 by December 31, 2026?
282 shares @ 33.6¢·now 77.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$216.91
$122.40
- NO
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?
90 shares @ 24.3¢·now 91.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$81.54
$59.74
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 9.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$45.25
$40.75
- NO
Base FDV above $12B one day after launch?
50 shares @ 66.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$41.25
$8.25
- YES
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
329 shares @ 12.4¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$37.84
$-3.14
- NO
Base FDV above $10B one day after launch?
50 shares @ 62.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$36.00
$5.00
- YES
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
118 shares @ 15.6¢·now 19.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$22.32
$4.05
- NO
Will UNI reach $11.00 by December 31, 2026?
22 shares @ 30.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$19.93
$13.32
- YES
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?
61 shares @ 7.0¢·now 15.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.36
$5.06
- YES
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?
178 shares @ 0.4¢·now 5.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.28
$8.50
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?$70.24Jul 29, 05:36 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 25, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?$5.16Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?$45.50Jul 14, 14:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Chainlink reach $18 by December 31, 2026?$4.12Jul 13, 05:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
18 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 18
- Avg trade size
- $18.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 28, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 05:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.