0x9abc6bdadc4dd83cdc04bad976fbfdf2d21d0053
0x9abc6bdadc4dd83cdc04bad976fbfdf2d21d0053
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
8
Open notional
$113.91
Total PnL
$-0.67
Realised
$-6.99
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
36 shares @ 94.7¢·now 96.1¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$34.60
$0.50
- NO
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?
33 shares @ 78.8¢·now 92.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$30.48
$4.35
- NO
Will Islamic Charitable Projects Association win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
24 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.9¢·exp May 31, 2026$23.95
$0.11
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
10 shares @ 66.2¢·now 86.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.63
$2.01
- NO
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
11 shares @ 86.4¢·now 77.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$8.15
$-0.96
- YES
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?
6 shares @ 90.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$5.93
$0.57
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
3 shares @ 36.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$1.92
$0.87
- YES
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
165 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.25
$-1.13
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.15Jul 16, 18:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$0.12Jul 15, 13:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.16Jul 15, 08:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.37Jul 15, 06:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.10Jul 11, 22:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$1.23Jul 8, 15:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.38Jul 7, 23:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.61Jul 7, 23:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.16Jul 7, 23:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.14Jul 6, 17:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$34.19Jul 6, 14:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$34.74Jul 6, 14:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$42.99Jul 2, 13:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$0.00Jul 2, 12:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran close its airspace by June 30?$0.00Jul 2, 12:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$0.00Jul 2, 12:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$1.02Jul 2, 12:46 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$2.39Jul 2, 12:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?$3.41Jul 2, 12:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$4.94Jul 2, 12:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $5.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 30, 23:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 18:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.