Messy-Caption
0x9be2f856b18d78bfe63a8fe9c549f6ac870f6ad6
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$30.35
Total PnL
$-970.01
Realised
$-808.94
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
25 shares @ 41.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$25.00
$14.75
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
5 shares @ 90.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.82
$-1.68
- YES
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?
22 shares @ 68.4¢·now 10.4¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.29
$-12.69
- YES
Hyperliquid open interest flipped in 2026?
10 shares @ 23.0¢·now 2.4¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.24
$-2.06
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 19?
6000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-12.00
- NO
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
2000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 19?
1350 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-12.75
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 19-25?
900 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-24.30
- NO
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025?
555 shares @ 7.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-39.91
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 22?
517 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Hyperliquid reach $46 by December 31, 2026?$12.92May 11, 20:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$41.22May 11, 20:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?$97.48May 11, 20:25 UTC
- TRADESELLJeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?$97.00Apr 18, 16:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026?$1.00Apr 6, 14:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $2B in 2026?$10.00Apr 6, 14:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hyperliquid reach $42 by December 31, 2026?$15.00Apr 6, 14:57 UTC
- TRADESELL100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?$18.60Mar 7, 04:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$10.25Mar 2, 22:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$12.45Mar 2, 21:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$40.00Mar 2, 19:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude 5 not be released by February 28, 2026?$25.00Mar 2, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $2B in 2026?$8.30Feb 20, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYJeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?$93.61Feb 16, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYJeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?$0.99Feb 16, 17:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?$1.71Feb 16, 17:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?$47.02Feb 16, 17:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?$47.56Feb 16, 17:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$10.65Feb 13, 13:37 UTC
- TRADESELLFlying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch?$76.65Feb 10, 20:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 72/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $23.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 22, 12:32 UTC
- Last active
- May 11, 20:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.