Messy-Ribbon
0x9cdd752c9b0eaaa3c7a309958d0de37e6546df3e
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
84
Open notional
$2.7K
Total PnL
$36.21
Realised
$-1.78
Win rate
29%
41 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 84- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
307 shares @ 96.1¢·now 96.3¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$295.56
$0.68
- NO
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
272 shares @ 93.6¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$249.09
$-5.55
- NO
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
249 shares @ 94.8¢·now 95.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$236.98
$0.69
- NO
Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by December 31, 2026?
175 shares @ 96.0¢·now 95.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$166.56
$-1.20
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
126 shares @ 91.1¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$113.22
$-2.07
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
111 shares @ 93.1¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$102.54
$-0.65
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
579 shares @ 9.9¢·now 15.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$89.72
$32.53
- NO
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
99 shares @ 90.6¢·now 89.5¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$88.66
$-1.13
- NO
Yoon out of custody before 2027?
97 shares @ 88.4¢·now 89.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$87.00
$1.25
- YES
Will Cook Islands Party win the most seats in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?
92 shares @ 81.5¢·now 89.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$82.13
$7.33
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$0.86Jul 21, 23:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$0.91Jul 21, 23:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$0.12Jul 21, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYHamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?$1.59Jul 21, 22:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYHamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?$2.23Jul 21, 22:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$4.05Jul 21, 21:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$0.19Jul 21, 21:12 UTC
- TRADESELLFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$0.37Jul 21, 21:03 UTC
- TRADESELLFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$0.19Jul 21, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill François Hollande advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?$5.34Jul 21, 20:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYModi out by December 31, 2026?$2.08Jul 21, 20:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?$1.65Jul 21, 19:51 UTC
- TRADESELLFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$0.15Jul 21, 19:39 UTC
- TRADESELLFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$6.01Jul 21, 19:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Cook Islands Party win the most seats in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?$2.42Jul 21, 19:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$0.02Jul 21, 18:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$0.03Jul 21, 18:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$0.07Jul 21, 18:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$0.06Jul 21, 18:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$0.19Jul 21, 18:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 41 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.
41 closed markets, 29% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $3.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 10:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 23:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 41 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.