Waterlogged-Spirit
0xa0cbb625b60f5ed1fd06707ddbb7ff6cc320ab6a
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
5
Open notional
$387.02
Total PnL
$-83.80
Realised
$-66.18
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- U 84.5
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win more than 84.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?
371 shares @ 84.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$317.20
$5.56
- YES
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?
39 shares @ 90.0¢·now 94.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$37.01
$1.91
- YES
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026
152 shares @ 25.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$17.48
$-20.52
- YES
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
69 shares @ 26.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$12.77
$-5.17
- NO
Over $1B raised on Coinbase in 2026?
4 shares @ 49.0¢·now 64.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.56
$0.60
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the Washington Capitals win the Metropolitan Division?$0.00Jun 17, 15:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Marty Supreme be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Jun 17, 15:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Biden" at the FIFA World Cup Draw on December 5?$0.00Jun 17, 15:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anca Alexandrescu get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?$0.00Jun 17, 15:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill fewer than 20 tornadoes occur in the United States in November?$0.00Jun 17, 15:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Hamnet" win Best Film at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?$0.00Jun 17, 15:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 18m?$0.00Jun 17, 15:06 UTC
- REDEEMQuerétaro FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 1.5$163.00Jun 17, 15:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Cramer say "Michael" or "Burry" during TBPN on December 4?$0.00Jun 17, 15:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lighter dip to $2 before 2027?$0.00Jun 17, 15:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia end in a draw?$0.00Jun 17, 15:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "No No No" this week? (March 22)$0.00Jun 17, 15:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Querétaro FC vs. FC Juárez end in a draw?$0.00Jun 17, 15:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 18, 2026?$0.00Jun 17, 15:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Starmer say "Renewables" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$1.3KJun 17, 15:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?$0.00Jun 17, 15:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?$479.61Apr 27, 10:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2026-03-05?$175.54Apr 27, 08:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$159.14Apr 27, 08:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026$38.00Apr 23, 14:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $254.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 12, 16:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 17, 15:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.