Grizzled-Van
0xa290c9b9714879492e434bb64842e46b315ccd51
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$46.53
Total PnL
$-6.47
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
10 shares @ 96.2¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.19
$0.19
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
7 shares @ 56.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$7.12
$3.12
- YES
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO?
6 shares @ 16.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$6.25
$5.25
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
106 shares @ 15.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.84
$-10.16
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
6 shares @ 89.3¢·now 96.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.39
$0.39
- NO
Human moon landing in 2026?
5 shares @ 96.2¢·now 99.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.14
$0.14
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
3 shares @ 78.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.42
$0.42
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
2 shares @ 91.1¢·now 95.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.10
$0.10
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
1 shares @ 93.0¢·now 96.8¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$1.04
$0.04
- NO
US x China Military clash before 2027?
1 shares @ 93.0¢·now 95.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.03
$0.03
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$4.00May 22, 05:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$15.51May 22, 05:28 UTC
- REDEEMIran leadership change by March 31?$0.00May 22, 05:18 UTC
- REDEEMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?$0.00May 22, 05:18 UTC
- REDEEMIran leadership change by April 30?$0.00May 22, 05:18 UTC
- REDEEMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?$0.00May 22, 05:18 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$0.00May 22, 05:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill another country strike Iran by March 31?$0.00May 22, 05:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?$0.00May 22, 05:18 UTC
- REDEEMUS escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?$0.00May 22, 05:18 UTC
- REDEEMUS escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?$0.00May 22, 05:18 UTC
- REDEEMUS forces enter Iran by December 31?$0.00May 22, 05:18 UTC
- REDEEMIran leadership change by March 31?$1.05May 22, 05:14 UTC
- REDEEMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?$1.09May 22, 05:14 UTC
- REDEEMIran leadership change by April 30?$1.25May 22, 05:14 UTC
- REDEEMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?$1.49May 22, 05:14 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$2.27May 22, 05:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill another country strike Iran by March 31?$2.33May 22, 05:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?$3.17May 22, 05:14 UTC
- REDEEMUS escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?$5.00May 22, 05:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $2.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 26, 05:17 UTC
- Last active
- May 22, 05:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.