0xa36450e0a87bacd4f3e38a287ce2f3ec9a7b792e
0xa36450e0a87bacd4f3e38a287ce2f3ec9a7b792e
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$1.0K
Total PnL
$-402.03
Realised
$143.90
Win rate
50%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
3000 shares @ 7.1¢·now 8.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$253.50
$39.34
- NO
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
400 shares @ 57.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$150.00
$-78.00
- YES
Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
910 shares @ 27.2¢·now 9.9¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$90.05
$-157.43
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
750 shares @ 19.0¢·now 11.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$87.38
$-55.13
- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
350 shares @ 30.1¢·now 23.9¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$83.83
$-21.67
- YES
NATO article 5 before 2027?
1007 shares @ 13.8¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$75.53
$-63.46
- NO
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
100 shares @ 48.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$60.50
$12.50
- NO
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
75 shares @ 50.0¢·now 75.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$56.25
$18.75
- YES
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
200 shares @ 50.0¢·now 25.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$50.00
$-50.00
- NO
Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
47 shares @ 50.0¢·now 90.1¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$42.26
$18.81
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 25, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
3 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 3
- Avg trade size
- $76.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 13, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.