Previous-Vessel
0xa5bc061878896d184132e3af722fef013b64cd69
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$331.03
Total PnL
$10.36
Realised
$-0.14
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
138 shares @ 40.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$61.19
$6.19
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
134 shares @ 41.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$58.35
$3.35
- YES
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1571 shares @ 3.5¢·now 3.6¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$57.36
$2.36
- YES
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
846 shares @ 6.5¢·now 6.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$53.73
$-1.27
- YES
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
107 shares @ 38.8¢·now 39.8¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$42.54
$1.07
- NO
Will another outcome occur in the CO-01 Democratic primary?
37 shares @ 99.7¢·now 97.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$35.61
$-0.99
- NO
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
7 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$7.49
$0.00
- NO
Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
7 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$7.49
$0.00
- NO
Will Diana DeGette win the CO-01 Democratic primary by less than 5%?
7 shares @ 99.9¢·now 97.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$7.27
$-0.22
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 3, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$56.59Jul 2, 19:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill another outcome occur in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election?$55.24Jul 2, 14:33 UTC
- REDEEMAleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?$7.49Jul 2, 00:44 UTC
- REDEEMBelgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance$0.00Jul 1, 23:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$56.54Jul 1, 22:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBelgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance$55.95Jul 1, 22:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026?$8.73Jul 1, 18:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Diana DeGette win the CO-01 Democratic primary by less than 5%?$7.49Jul 1, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill another outcome occur in the CO-01 Democratic primary?$36.60Jul 1, 09:01 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$0.00Jul 1, 08:13 UTC
- REDEEMUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?$55.05Jul 1, 06:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill John Szemler be the Democratic nominee for CO-08?$3.75Jul 1, 05:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08?$59.78Jul 1, 04:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?$55.00Jul 1, 02:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYAleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?$7.03Jun 27, 23:39 UTC
- REDEEMPanama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5$0.00Jun 27, 23:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$11.65Jun 27, 17:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$0.70Jun 27, 17:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$0.70Jun 27, 17:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $19.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 24, 09:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 00:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.