Arctic-Kickoff
0xa66790e2b0075e73c3781ddaf1d0b875a3aaceb3
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$234.8K
Total PnL
$-565.74
Realised
$10.8K
Win rate
53%
171 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
18500 shares @ 94.3¢·now 96.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.8K
$350.08
- NO
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
18540 shares @ 92.8¢·now 94.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$17.5K
$260.45
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
15716 shares @ 91.7¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.9K
$444.12
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
11292 shares @ 88.4¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.3K
$354.01
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
12044 shares @ 78.5¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.5K
$-967.81
- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
8062 shares @ 92.1¢·now 96.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.8K
$355.69
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
10354 shares @ 84.6¢·now 73.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$7.6K
$-1.2K
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
7838 shares @ 89.7¢·now 95.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.5K
$465.96
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
6110 shares @ 89.4¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.7K
$186.45
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
5230 shares @ 87.6¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.2K
$617.13
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$1.00Jul 25, 04:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$0.13Jul 25, 04:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?$3.91Jul 25, 04:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$0.35Jul 25, 04:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?$13.26Jul 25, 04:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYModi out by December 31, 2026?$27.60Jul 25, 04:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$0.20Jul 25, 04:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the July meeting?$4.34Jul 25, 04:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$2.00Jul 25, 03:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026?$4.58Jul 25, 03:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?$4.47Jul 25, 03:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?$25.96Jul 25, 03:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$0.36Jul 25, 03:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.5% in July?$1.65Jul 25, 02:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$9.23Jul 25, 02:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?$7.30Jul 25, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?$29.32Jul 25, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$0.18Jul 25, 02:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill gas hit $3.70 (Low) by July 31?$4.76Jul 25, 02:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$0.31Jul 25, 01:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
53% win rate over 171 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
171 closed markets, 53% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
$12.1K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $3.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 00:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 04:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 171 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.